Guaranteed Profit Betting
A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet on the outcome of discrete events.[1] Betting exchanges offer the same opportunities to bet as a bookmaker with a few differences. Gamblers can buy (also known as 'back') and sell (also known as 'lay') the outcome, and they can trade in real-time throughout the event, either to cut their losses or lock in profit. Bookmaker operators generate revenue by offering less efficient odds. Betting exchanges normally generate revenue by charging a small commission on winning bets.
- How To Profit From Betting
- How To Make Profit Betting
- Guaranteed Profit Sports Betting
- Guaranteed Profit Betting Odds
- Guaranteed Profit Betting Definition
- Guaranteed Profit Betting Strategy
If they take $1,000 worth of bets on one boxer and $1,000 on the other, the bookie would take in $1,000 but only have to pay out $830, for a guaranteed $170 profit regardless of the outcome. Bookies look at. Guaranteed Free Picks from Winning Sports Handicappers for Tonight. Here at Sports Capping we have put together a group of nearly 100 of the top experts in the business and many of them provide free betting tips on a daily basis.
History[edit]
The first betting exchanges were Matchbook, flutter.com and Betfair. Flutter and Betfair merged in 2001 with Betfair chosen as the primary betting exchange.[2] The flutter.com site ceased operations in January 2002.[3] Since then Betfair has maintained a leading position in the betting exchange market. BETDAQ (which also trades as the 'Ladbrokes Exchange') is believed to be the second largest betting exchange and it had an estimated 7% share of the betting exchange market in 2013.[4] BETDAQ is owned by Ladbrokes plc (now Ladbrokes Coral) following the acquisition in February 2013.[5]
Exchanges and traditional bookmakers compared[edit]
Most exchanges make their money by charging a commission which is calculated as a percentage of net winnings for each customer on each event, or market. Gamblers whose betting activities have been restricted by bookmakers (normally for winning too much money) are able to place bets of unrestricted size as long as one or more opposing customers are willing to match their bets. The odds available on a betting exchange are usually better than those offered by bookmakers, in spite of the commission charged, because there are smaller overrounds.
In spite of these advantages, exchanges currently have some limitations. Because exchanges seek to concentrate their liquidity in as few markets as possible, they are not currently suited to unrestricted multiple parlay betting. Betfair does offer accumulators but these are limited in number and type: users cannot determine the outcomes contained in accumulators themselves. Some exchanges such as BETDAQ also offer multiples but the exchanges act in the same manner as traditional bookmakers in doing so (i.e. they themselves and not a customer act as the layer of such bets). Exchanges also tend to restrict the odds that can be offered to between 1.01 (1 to 100) and 1000 (999 to 1).
Backing and laying[edit]
How To Profit From Betting
Traditionally betting has occurred between a customer and a bookmaker where the customer 'backs' (bets that an outcome will occur) and the bookmaker 'lays' (bets that the outcome will not occur). Betting exchanges offer the opportunity for anyone to both back and lay.
For example, if someone thinks that Team A will win the competition, they may support that choice. The bookmaker offering this bet to the player will choose this option. Both sides will agree on the sponsor's bet and odds. If the team loses, the layer/bookmaker retains the patron's bet. If the team wins, the layer will pay the sponsor the winnings according to the agreed odds. Since every bet you make requires a patron and a layer, and the exchange of bets is not a participant in the bets made on it, any exchange of bets requires both patrons and layers.
In-play betting[edit]
Exchanges allow bets to be made in-running or in-play (i.e. to make bets while a race or match is in progress). This feature is generally restricted to the most popular events for which widespread, live television coverage is available.
Whereas non-in-play bets are entered into the system immediately after being placed by the customer, when betting in-play a time delay might be instituted so as to make it somewhat more difficult for unscrupulous customers to accept offers for bets that for whatever reason have suddenly become highly favorable. Markets may also be actively managed by the operator. In this case, betting will be briefly halted after each occurrence likely to cause a substantial change in the odds (for example, in association football matches goals, penalty kicks and sendings off would warrant such suspensions), so that unmatched bets can be cancelled.
Traders and arbitrageurs[edit]
Arbitrageurs (colloquially 'arbers') attempt to simultaneously bet on all possible outcomes to make a guaranteed profit. A trader operates similarly to an arbitrageur but is willing to take on extra risk and bet on events where no immediate profit is possible. A trader hopes to make a profit by closing out the bet at a later stage at more favorable odds. Closing out a bet for profit involves collecting more money by laying than is paid out when the outcome is backed back. If the event does not occur then no money is lost, alternatively if a trader is able to lay a higher stake at shorter odds than his back stake then he can theoretically guarantee the same amount of profit regardless of the outcome. On the other hand, if the odds move against the trader he might elect to close out the bet so as to minimise his loss. Trading can be done either before the start of an event or while the event is in progress if in-play betting is offered. Compared to trading before the event commences, trading in-play usually involves both greater risk and also the potential to make more money.
Traders can make money by betting exclusively with betting exchanges or bookmakers, or by combining the two. The trader could lay at a low amount on a betting exchange and then back at a higher price with a bookie or another exchange. This must be done simultaneously to guarantee a profit or else the opportunity could quickly cease to exist with liquid markets quickly correcting prices and bookies trying to avoid being arbitraged.
Most exchanges post the book percentages (colloquially known as the overround or 'vig') prominently for each market. These percentages are essentially the cumulative implied percentage chances of the odds on offer for each selection and for a single winner market will usually add up to more than 100% for all back selections (but only marginally over in a competitive market), and under 100% for the lay selections. This ensures that simultaneously backing or laying all selections in a market will not normally guarantee a profit. Occasionally though (especially in circumstances where odds are prone to change rapidly) exceptions will arise where offers to back or lay all selections will be made that if simultaneously and cumulatively accepted at exactly the right stakes would permit an arbitrageur to guarantee a profit. However, such phenomena tend to correct themselves very quickly and exchanges generally try to dissuade customers from attempting to take advantage of such circumstances.
Furthermore, for a trader or arbitrageur to combine different exchanges and/or bookmakers for a profit requires a substantial price differential if a profit is in fact to be made once the exchange's commission is taken into account. Even between exchanges, such large price differences are rare, brief and usually involve relatively small stakes. Fortunately for traders, almost all betting exchanges charge commission on net winnings only and charge no commission at all in the event of a net loss. This suits the trader's high turnover, low profit strategy provided he bets exclusively with a single exchange.
Unless a trader is willing to accept the risks inherent with in-play trading, the profit or loss for a trader will typically be no more than 10% of the total amount of his combined back and lay stakes in any particular market, so to make meaningful amounts of money a trader needs to commit a relatively large amount of capital. The trader therefore runs the risk of having a large unwanted bet on an event if he is unable to close his position before the event starts (e.g. if there are technical problems with his Internet connection or with the exchange).
Traders and arbitrageurs are often credited with 'seeding' markets with more competitive prices than would be present without them. However, Betfair's imposition of a premium charge in September 2008 was seen by some as being directed at the most skilled traders, whom it is speculated trade for a loss very infrequently and thus would otherwise pay little in the way of commission. In response, rival exchanges have pledged not to introduce similar charges, perhaps in hopes of enticing traders to move their business (and capital) elsewhere.
Controversy[edit]
The fact gamblers can lay outcomes on the exchanges has resulted in criticism from traditional bookmakers including the UK's 'Big Three' - Gala Coral Group, Ladbrokes and William Hill. These firms argue that granting 'anonymous' punters the ability to bet that an outcome will not happen is causing corruption in sports such as horse racing since it is much easier to ensure a horse will lose a race than to ensure that it will win.
Exchanges counter that, while corruption is possible on any gambling platform, the bookies' arguments are motivated not by concern for the integrity of sport but by commercial interests. Exchanges also assert they are well aware of who their customers are and keep a complete record of all betting activity in case of enquiries, whereas high-street bookies take anonymous cash bets. Furthermore, customers can monitor the odds on the exchanges' user-friendly platforms independently. Exchanges and the authorities can be immediately alerted should suspicious betting patterns become apparent. Some exchanges have signed agreements with governing bodies of sport including the Jockey Club, with whom they insist they will co-operate fully if the latter suspects corruption to have taken place. Exchanges have co-operated with police investigations when asked to do so, sometimes leading to arrests.
In February 2013, Ladbrokes (now Ladbrokes Coral) acquired BETDAQ, which is a betting exchange. Of the UK's 'Big Three' only William Hill doesn't own a betting exchange.
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7109494.stm
- ^Goodley, By Simon. 'Betfair buy spells the final flutter'. Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 2017-06-19.
- ^Wood, Greg (2002-01-16). 'Flutter's departure leaves bitter taste'. The Guardian. ISSN0261-3077. Retrieved 2017-06-17.
- ^'Ladbrokes acquires Betdaq betting exchange for €30m'. 2013-01-25. Retrieved 2017-06-17.
- ^Percival, Geoff. 'Ladbrokes acquires BETDAQ betting exchange for €30m'. The Irish Examiner. Retrieved 2013-01-25.
I remember when I first started searching for a proven betting system googling the term “betting systems.”
There was all sorts of progressive staking systems, martingale systems, stop at a winner systems, progressive laying systems. The fact was though that none of these betting systems held up to any long term analysis and would normally blow your bank if you followed them for long enough.
But after researching a bit longer I found a few betting systems that did actually work.
Here are four betting systems that I have used over the years.
Which continue to be profitable in the year 2021.
Proven Betting System 1 – Arbitrage Betting
Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my portfolio. Arbitrage betting involves covering every outcome of an event. In order to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome.
Here is an example of a number of arbitrage bets found using the software rebelbetting.
For example if we take one of the arbitrage bets above.
There is a 3.7% arbitrage bet between The New Saints and Bala in the Welsh division.
In the draw no bet market The New Saints could be backed at 1.53 with Marathonbet and Bala could be backed at 3.2 with William Hill.
For every £100 risked across both outcomes a profit of £3.7 could be guaranteed.
With arbitrage betting you can make several of these bets every day and gradually build up your bankroll with almost zero risk.
It is a system that once you understand can be used again and again.
Negatives of arbitrage betting?
The only issue with arbitrage betting is that it has a limited life cycle. Bookmakers will eventually limit arbitrage bettors accounts once they see that they are not going to be profitable customers.
Arbitrage betting is a great way to build up a betting or trading bankroll. Before you move on to betting or trading with exchanges and Asian bookmakers.
Proven Betting System 2 – Value Betting
Value betting is similar to arbitrage betting as it involves exploiting the soft bookmakers. A value bet involves looking for odds that are out of line with the sharp Asian Bookmakers or betting exchanges.
Given that the odds at sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges are quite efficient in big markets. The betting exchanges and sharp Asian bookmakers often offer close to the true odds of an event. Sometimes when there is odds movement on these events soft bookmakers will be slow to move their odds.
Consistently betting on odds above the Asian bookmakers and betting exchanges has proven to be profitable.
Image courtesy ofTrademate Sports.
The advantage that value betting has over arbitrage betting is that you generate a much higher turnover and use lower stakes which may make your accounts last longer then conventional arbitrage betting.
A lot of bookmakers will also offer value accumulators often on a weekly basis as part of odds boosts or special promotions.
Negatives of value betting?
Again the only downside to consistently taking value bets is that soft bookmakers will eventually see that you are able to make money from them and will limit or close your account.
However if you plan to make money from sports betting. Getting banned from soft bookmakers is going to happen whichever way you choose to make money from them.
Proven Betting System 3 – Matched Betting
The popularity of matched betting has exploded in the last few years and with good reason.
Matched betting is probably one the best and easiest ways to generate a good second income online. It involves taking advantage of bookmaker offers to guarantee a profit much like arbitrage.
The big advantage that matched betting has over arbitrage is that is a lot less obvious and harder for bookmaker’s employed traders to spot.
I have covered matched betting in a lot more detail in this article below.
Negatives of matched betting?
There isn’t many downsides to matched betting. Bookmakers will stop giving you promotions eventually. But as discussed before this is what happens when you become a profitable sports bettor.
How To Make Profit Betting
So there you have 3 proven betting systems that are currently working in 2020. Which should also prove be profitable in the long term.
Each of these betting systems involve exploiting soft bookmakers.
This is really the best way to start making money from the sports betting markets and allows you to build up a nice trading bankroll or good second income.
Proven Betting System 4 – Betting On Team News
One proven betting strategy that you might not know is reacting quickly to team news.
Odds can rapidly change on the basis of team news.
If you have a good knowledge of the teams that are playing, then you will often be able to secure yourself a value bet.
Here is a good example of how odds can change when a teams lineup is announced.
In this example I have highlighted the point at which team news was announced.
This was a Europa League between Arsenal and Standard Liege.
Arsenal announced a weaker side then expected, from this news the odds on Arsenal drifted quite significantly before the game started.
If you were familiar with the teams and reacted to the information you would have been able to secure yourself a value bet on Standard Liege. Due to the fact that Arsenal’s odds were drifting so the odds on the draw and Standard Liege would have to shorten.
This is a really effective strategy and if you have access to betting exchanges you can secure yourself a profit before the game even starts.
Here are two videos which explain this strategy in more detail.
Watch this video on YouTube
Which betting systems have you found to work best?
Are there any that are missing from this list?
Let me know in the comments below.